Indonesia Fuels demand increase every year; so that fuels subsidy increases progressively and APBN
(National Budget) will become worst. With Parliament (DPR) approvement, government shall cut down
the fuels subsidy step by step, and to determine type and total volume of _fuels subsidized on year 2006, the
type of fuels subsidized are Premium (regular Gasoline), Diesel Oil and Kerosene with total consumption
equal to 41,58 million kL that was mean around 30% decreasing of subsidized fuel alocation.
Analysis level of confidence in amount of Diesel Oil demand for transportation and Kerosene demand
for household and small industries base on quota compared with the result of formulation _[rom historical
consumption conducted by Monte-Carlo simulation. The result of simulation indicate that in 20012 Diesel
oil demand for transportation base on quota having confidence level of 78,8%, and base on formulation
having confidence level of 33,l%. While the result of simulation for Kerosene demand for household and
small industries base on quota having confidence level of 62.6%, and base on formulation having
confidence level of 80. 4%.