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"Indonesia sejak tahun 1995 melalui keanggotaannya di ASEAN membuat kesepakatan dengan negara-negara partner dagang strategisnya dalam hal Free Trade Agreement (FTA). ASEAN - India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) yang berlaku sejak tahun 2010 juga merupakan upaya menjalin kerjasama perdagangan bebas dengan negara mitra dagang strategisnya. Penelitian ini berupaya meninjau hasil negosiasi penetapan tarif bea masuk barang impor India melalui skema AIFTA dilihat dari sisi Indonesia sebagai partnernya.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak banyak peran Indonesia dalam hal penetapan bea masuk tersebut. India lebih banyak memegang peran dengan menetapkan bea masuk yang mencerminkan sikap proteksi atas pasar domestiknya. Penelitian ini juga menghasilkan daftar produk ekspor Indonesia yang perlu diajukan untuk dibebaskan bea masuknya jika Indonesia ingin mendapat manfaat lebih dari skema AIFTA ini.

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Since 1995 Indonesia through its membership in ASEAN made a Free Trade Agreement with its trading partner. ASEAN - India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) which in force since 2010 is also an attempt to establish free trade agreements with its strategic trading partners. This study tries to review the negotiations results of regarding tariffs of Indian import goods through AIFTA scheme in view of Indonesia as a partner.The results showed that there was not quite a lot of Indonesia's role in the determination of the customs duties. India holds more roles by assigning duties that reflects protection of its domestic markets. This research also generates a list of Indonesian export products that need to be filed to be exempted in import duty list if Indonesia wants to benefit more from this AIFTA scheme."

"Penelitian dilakukan untuk mengetahui respon dinamis transaksi berjalan apabila defisit anggaran meningkat tiba-tiba melalui jalur nilai tukar dan suku bunga menggunakan data Indonesia periode 2000Q1-2013Q4 dengan model Struktural Vektor Autoregression (SVAR). Penelitian juga ingin mengetahui dampaknya terhadap PDB riil. Berdasarkan Impulse Response Function (IRF) diperoleh hasil bahwa respon transaksi berjalan atas shock defisit anggaran tidak kuat, perubahan berada pada kisaran 0,04%-0,07%. Tidak ditemukan Twin Deficits Hyphotesys dalam perekonomian Indonesia pada periode tersebut. Respon suku bunga naik dan kecil serta memerlukan tiga periode untuk memperoleh apresiasi nilai tukar. Respon PDB terhadap peningkatan defisit anggaran negatif. Berdasarkan Forecast Error Decomposition Variance (FEDV) diperoleh hasil bahwa perubahan transaksi berjalan sangat dipengaruhi pertumbuhan PDB. Pengaruh shock defisit anggaran terhadap perubahan transaksi berjalan relatif kecil.

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The study was conducted to determine the dynamic effects of budget deficits distubances on current account deficit through interest rate and exchange rate using data of Indonesia in 2000Q1-2013Q4 with Structural Vector Autoregression model. The impact on real GDP also to be learned. Result of Impulse Response Function (IRF) is that the effects of shock on current account deficit is not strong, the range are between 0.04% and 0.07%. Twin Deficits Hyphotesys is not found in the Indonesia?s economy during this period. Response of interest rates is increasing and not strong. There is need three-periods to get exchange rate appreciation. Response of GDP is negative. Using Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEDV) is obtained that the current account changes greatly influenced by GDP."

"ABSTRAKTujuan penelitian ini untuk mengidentifikasi pengaruh determinasi aksesibilitas terhadap pengeluaran perkapita dan menganalisis determinan aksesibilitas keuangan rumah tangga. Adanya pengaruh dua arah antara aksesibilitas dan pengeluaran perkapita rumah tangga, menyebabkan penelitian harus diestimasi dengan pendekatan simultan. Dari hasil estimasi dapat diketahui bahwa keinginan rumah tangga untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran perkapitanya mendorong mereka untuk mengakses kredit baik itu secara umum, perbankan maupun program bantuan pemerintah, disisi yang lain adanya keterlibatan rumah tangga dalam mengakses kredit mendorong peningkatan pengeluaran perkapita.Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa antara pengeluaran perkapita dan aksesibilitas rumah tangga di pasar kredit memberikan pengaruh secara simultan. Determinan yang mempengaruhi keputusan rumah tangga berpartisipasi di pasar kredit, menunjukkan bahwa pendidikan masih menjadi kendala bagi rumah tangga untuk bisa berpartisipasi. Kendala ini juga yang menyebabkan rumah tangga pertanian enggan untuk mengakses kredit sekalipun itu adalah program bantuan dari pemerintah.

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ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study to identify the effect of the determination of accessibility to expenditure per capita and analyze the determinants of household financial accessibility. The existence of two-way influence between accessibility and per capita household expenditure, causing research to be estimated with two-stage probit least squares approach. From the estimation results can be seen that the desire of households to increase expenditure per capita encourage them to access credit, either banking or government assistance programs. On the other hand the involvement of households in credit market, help them to increase their expenditure per capita.These results indicate that the per capita expenditure and accessibility of households in the credit markets provide simultaneous influence. While the analysis of the determinants showed that education is still an obstacle for households to access financial institutions. This constraint also causes agricultural households are reluctant to access credit even if it is a government assistance program."

"Peruntukan kawasan jalan pesisir (coastal area) di kabupaten Karimun pada perencanaan awal yaitu sebagai kawasan pariwisata, namun saat ini kondisi eksisting sebagai kawasan perdagangan. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan analisis biaya dan manfaat, dimana perhitungan analisis biaya dan manfaat yang dilakukan merupakan metode untuk mengetahui manfaat terbesar dari peruntukan kawasan jalan pesisir sehingga dapat menentukan kebijakan optimal pada kawasan tersebut.Hasil analisis menunjukan bahwa peruntukan kawasan jalan pesisir yang layak adalah sebagai kawasan perdagangan karena memenuhi seluruh indikator yaitu NPV (Net Present Value) sebesar Rp. 141.325.253.867, IRR (internal rate of return) sebesar 40,8% dan BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) sebesar 2,735. Dari hasil tersebut dapat dikatakan bahwa peruntukan optimal kawasan jalan pesisir (coastal area) di kabupaten Karimun adalah sebagai kawasan perdagangan. Pemerintah daerah akan mendapatkan manfaat terbesar dengan menerapkan kawasan jalan pesisir sebagai kawasan perdagangan.Kemudian dilakukan simulasi pada kawasan pariwisata beberapa skenario dengan hasil pada simulasi 1 dan 2 biaya 100% ditanggung pemerintah dengan asumsi terjadi kenaikan pendapatan dan biaya setiap tahunnya. Hasilnya peruntukan kawasan coastal area tidak memenuhi NPV karena kurang dari nol. Pada simulasi 3 dibuat gabungan antara pihak swasta dan investor dengan hasil untuk NPV dan BCR menjadi layak. Dari hasil simulasi yang dilakukan dapat memberikan masukan kebijakan kepada pemerintah daerah agar memenuhi kelayakan pada kawasan jalan pesisir perlu dilakukan kerjasama swasta dan pemerintah. Sehingga perencanaan dapat aplikatif dan memberikan kesejahteraan melalui pendapatan pemerintah daerah yang dapat digunakan kembali untuk pembangunan dalam bidang lainnya.

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Allotment coastal road area in Karimun regency in the early planning is a tourism area, but existing condition of coastal road area currently as a trade area. In this research, the analysis of costs and benefits, where the calculation of cost-benefit analysis is carried out to determine the greatest benefits of allotment area coastal road so as to determine the optimal policy in the region.The result of this research showed decent allotment for coastal road area in Karimun district is the current existing condition which is a trade area because it meets all the indicators with NPV (Net Present Value) in amount of Rp. 141, 325, 253 867, IRR (internal rate of return) in amount of 40.8% and BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) in amount of 2.735. From these results we can say that optimal allotment coastal road area (coastal area) in the district Karimun is a trade area. Local governments will gain the greatest benefit by implementing a coastal road area as a trade area.Then, researcher do simulation for turism area with the result of simulations 1 and 2 for cost 100% paid by government with assumption increasein cost and benefit each year. The result allotment turism area does not approve due to less then zeroNPV. In simulation 3 made a joint between investor and government has a result NPV and BCR become feasible. From the result can provide policy advice to local governments in order to meet the eligibility on the coastal road area should be private and government cooperation. So that planning can be applied and provide welfare through local government revenues that can be reused for development in other fields."

"[ABSTRAKPDAM merupakan salah satu Badan Usaha Milik Daerah yang dimiliki setiap kabupaten dan kota di Indonesia. Keberadaan PDAM selain sebagai perusahaan, juga dituntut sebagai operator pelayanan publik di sektor air minum. Sebagai perusahaan, PDAM dituntut untuk memperoleh laba. Sebagian laba PDAM akan masuk pula sebagai dividen yang menyumbang Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD). Namun kondisi di lapangan, tidak semua PDAM memperoleh laba. Pada tahun buku 2012, 52% PDAM mengalami kerugian sementara hanya 48% yang memperoleh laba. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa mengenai faktor utama yang mempengaruhi kinerja keuangan PDAM dilihat dari perolehan laba PDAM di Indonesia pada tahun buku 2012. Estimasi model penelitian menggunakan regresi liniear berganda dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS).Jumlah data populasi yang digunakan dalam penelitian sebanyak 350 PDAM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa bahwa variabel utama yang berpengaruh positif terhadap keuntungan PDAM, yaitu kapasitas produksi (KAPPROD) dengan koefisien sebesar 188,1217, sedangkan variabel utama yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap keuntungan PDAM yaitu tingkat kehilangan air (TKA) dengan koefisien -67713909. Faktor lain yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap laba PDAM, yaitu: pendapatan lain-lain, biaya kimia dan biaya lain-lain. Sedangkan variabel yang tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap keuntungan PDAM di Indonesia yaitu: tarif, biaya energi, biaya pegawai dan biaya pemeliharaan.;

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ABSTRACTLocal Water Supply Company (PDAM) is one of local governmententerprises which is owned by each regency and city in Indonesia. Beside as acompany, PDAM is also demanded to be the operator of public services in watersupply sector. As a company, PDAM is demanded to generate profit. Some of theprofit earned will be included in Local Own-source Revenue (PAD). However, inpractical, not all PDAMs yield proft. From the accounting year of 2012, 52% ofthe PDAMs had financial loss while only 48% generated profit. This researchaims to analyse the main factor affecting the financial performance of PDAM asseen from the PDAM profit earnings in Indonesia in accounting year of 2012.Total data utilized in this research is 350 PDAMs. The estimation of researchmodel is using double linear regression by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method.The result of the research showed that the main variable which has positive effecton PDAM?s profit is production capacity (KAPPROD) with coefficient of181,1217, while the main factor which has negative effect on PDAM?s profit is thelevel of Non Revenue Water (TKA) with coefficient of -67713909. The otherfactors which have significant effect to the profit of PDAM are miscellaneousrevenue, chemical cost and miscellaneous cost. Meanwhile the variables whichhave insignificant effect to the profit of PDAM are as follows: tariff, energy cost,labour cost, and maintenance cost., Local Water Supply Company (PDAM) is one of local governmententerprises which is owned by each regency and city in Indonesia. Beside as acompany, PDAM is also demanded to be the operator of public services in watersupply sector. As a company, PDAM is demanded to generate profit. Some of theprofit earned will be included in Local Own-source Revenue (PAD). However, inpractical, not all PDAMs yield proft. From the accounting year of 2012, 52% ofthe PDAMs had financial loss while only 48% generated profit. This researchaims to analyse the main factor affecting the financial performance of PDAM asseen from the PDAM profit earnings in Indonesia in accounting year of 2012.Total data utilized in this research is 350 PDAMs. The estimation of researchmodel is using double linear regression by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method.The result of the research showed that the main variable which has positive effecton PDAM’s profit is production capacity (KAPPROD) with coefficient of181,1217, while the main factor which has negative effect on PDAM’s profit is thelevel of Non Revenue Water (TKA) with coefficient of -67713909. The otherfactors which have significant effect to the profit of PDAM are miscellaneousrevenue, chemical cost and miscellaneous cost. Meanwhile the variables whichhave insignificant effect to the profit of PDAM are as follows: tariff, energy cost,labour cost, and maintenance cost.]"

"Tesis ini membahas tentang keunggulan komparatif dan investasi asing langsung sektor industri pengolahan di Indonesia. Investasi asing langsung berperan dalam meningkatkan keunggulan komparatif, karena kehadiran perusahaan multinasional dapat memberikan spillovers teknologi dan pengembangan kapasitas inovatif pada sektor industri dalam negeri, kedua hal inilah yang kemudian diharapkan mampu meningkatkan keunggulan komparatif suatu negara. Nantinya, peningkatan keunggulan komparatif akan mendorong masuknya investasi asing langsung yang baru di masa depan.Metode estimasi Two Stage Pooled Least Square digunakan karena diduga ada hubungan simultan antara keunggulan komparatif dan investasi asing langsung serta terlanggarnya asumsi strict exogeneity. Hasil penelitian membuktikan adanya hubungan simultan antar keduanya.

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This thesis discusses the comparative advantage and foreign direct investment in the Indonesian manufacturing industry. Foreign direct investment plays an important role in improving the comparative advantage as the presence of multinational companies may generate technology spillovers and increase innovative capacity in the industrial sector within the country which subsequently expected to increase the comparative advantage and encourage more foreign direct investment in Indonesia.

The research is conducted by using Two Stage Pooled Least Square estimation method since it is assumed that there is a simultaneous relationship between comparative advantage and foreign direct investment as well as the violation of strict exogeneity assumption. Evidently, the result shows the existence of a simultaneous relationship between the two."

"[ABSTRAKIndonesia terletak di wilayah geografis yang rentan terhadap perubahan iklim.Meskipun intensitas energinya terus menurun, namun konsumsi energi dan emisikarbon terus meningkat. Sehingga diduga terdapat fenomena rebound effect. Studiini menggunakan model keseimbangan umum (CGE) untuk menganalisisfenomena rebound effect di Indonesia, serta dampak pengurangan subsidi energidan pengurangan pajak pendapatan terhadap rebound effect dan perekonomian.Hasil simulasi menjunjukkan bahwa di Indonesia terdapat fenomena reboundeffect, dimana pengurangan subsidi energi dapat menurunkan rebound effectsecara efektif, serta berdampak positif terhadap perekonomian. Meskipun dapatmenurunkan rebound effect, penerapan pengurangan pajak penghasilanberdampak negatif bagi perekonomian.;

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ABSTRACTIndonesia is located in the geographic areas that are vulnerable to global climatechange. Despite the energy intensity is declining, the energy consumption andcarbon emissions continue to increase. So the existance of rebound effectphenomenon is suspected. This study uses a general equilibrium model (CGE) toanalyze rebound effect phenomenon in Indonesia, and also to analyze the impactof energy subsidy reduction and income tax reduction to the rebound effect andthe economy. The simulation results shows that the rebound effect phenomenon isexist in Indonesia, in which the reduction of the energy subsidies can reduce therebound effect effectively, and it has a positive impact to the economy. Althoughit may reduce the rebound effect, the implementation of the income tax reductionhas negative impact to the economy., IIndonesia is located in the geographic areas that are vulnerable to global climatechange. Despite the energy intensity is declining, the energy consumption andcarbon emissions continue to increase. So the existance of rebound effectphenomenon is suspected. This study uses a general equilibrium model (CGE) toanalyze rebound effect phenomenon in Indonesia, and also to analyze the impactof energy subsidy reduction and income tax reduction to the rebound effect andthe economy. The simulation results shows that the rebound effect phenomenon isexist in Indonesia, in which the reduction of the energy subsidies can reduce therebound effect effectively, and it has a positive impact to the economy. Althoughit may reduce the rebound effect, the implementation of the income tax reductionhas negative impact to the economy.]"

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis apakah terjadi kondisi learning by exporting pada industri manufaktur di Indonesia. Kondisi tersebut menunjukkan pengaruh yang positif dari kegiatan ekspor produk manufaktur terhadap pertumbuhan produktivitas industri yang diukur dari produktivitas tenaga kerja dan produktivitas faktor total (TFP). Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menganalisis dampak produktivitas industri dari ekspor ke beberapa negara mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Hasil dari analisis ini diharapkan dapat digunakan sebagai dasar pengambilan kebijakan untuk memperkuat strategi program promosi ekspor Indonesia, sekaligus meningkatkan daya saing industri nasional. Periode penelitian diambil mulai kurun waktu tahun 2003 sampai dengan tahun 2008 dengan menggunakan data panel dari Survei Industri Besar dan Sedang, dan data ekspor Indonesia. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa kegiatan ekspor berpengaruh positif terhadap produktivitas tenaga kerja dan produktivitas faktor total (TFP) dari industri manufaktur Indonesia, serta terdapat heterogeneitas pengaruh negara tujuan ekspor terhadap produktivitas perusahaan/industri. Penelitian ini juga menunjukkan dampakyangsaling bertolakbelakang akibat implementasi perjanjian kawasan perdagangan bebas (FTA) ASEAN-China terhadap kedua produktivitas tersebut.

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This study aimed to analyze whether the condition of learning by exporting are happened in the manufacturing industry of Indonesia. This condition indicate a positive influence on the export of manufactured products to the growth of industrial productivity as measured by labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP). In addition, this study also analyzes the impact of industrial productivity of exports to several countries of Indonesia's major trading partners. The results of this analysis are expected to be used as a basis for policy making to strengthen Indonesia's export promotion program strategy, while enhancing the competitiveness of the national industry. The study took a period from 2003 to 2008 by using panel data from the Survei Industri Besar dan Sedang (Survey of Large and Medium Enterprises), and Indonesian export data. The result of estimation indicate that exporting gives a positive effect to labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) of the Indonesian manufacturing industry, and there is heterogeneity of the effect of export destinations to the industrial productivity. This study also demonstrates the contradicting impact of the free trade area agreement ( FTA ) between ASEAN and China to the productivity of Indonesian manufacturing industry."

"[Evaluasi pemilih terhadap kinerja pemimpin politik menjadi pondasi bagi demokrasi, sehingga demokrasi dapat menghasilkan pemimpin politik dengan kinerja baik. Selain itu pemilihan umum juga menjadi sarana bagi masyarakat untuk menentukan kebijakan mana yang tepat untuk diaplikasikan, berdasar kepada janji kampanye calon presiden. Kajian ini berusaha menangkap pengaruh faktor-faktor sosial ekonomi di tingkat desa terhadap keterpilihan Jokowi dalam pemilihan presiden 2014. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa tingkat kemiskinan, tingkat akses ekonomi dan kondisi infrastruktur desa serta kelas menengah berperan besar dalam kemenangan Jokowi. Temuan lain adalah bahwa paparan media, baik televisi maupun internet sangat berpengaruh dalam proses penentuan suara oleh masyarakat.

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..Voter evaluation of the political leader’s performance is the foundation for democracy, therefore democracy can produce a political leader with good performance. Elections are also a mean for the public to determine which policies are appropriate to be applied, based on the campaign. This study tried to capture the influence of socio-economic factors at the village level to the winning of Jokowi in 2014 election. The study found that poverty, economic access and infrastructure as well as the middle class plays a major role in the Jokowi’s victory. This study also found that media is influential to the vote decision.;Voter evaluation of the political leader’s performance is the foundation for democracy, therefore democracy can produce a political leader with good performance. Elections are also a mean for the public to determine which policies are appropriate to be applied, based on the campaign. This study tried to capture the influence of socio-economic factors at the village level to the winning of Jokowi in 2014 election. The study found that poverty, economic access and infrastructure as well as the middle class plays a major role in the Jokowi’s victory. This study also found that media is influential to the vote decision.;Voter evaluation of the political leader’s performance is the foundation for democracy, therefore democracy can produce a political leader with good performance. Elections are also a mean for the public to determine which policies are appropriate to be applied, based on the campaign. This study tried to capture the influence of socio-economic factors at the village level to the winning of Jokowi in 2014 election. The study found that poverty, economic access and infrastructure as well as the middle class plays a major role in the Jokowi’s victory. This study also found that media is influential to the vote decision.;Voter evaluation of the political leader’s performance is the foundation for democracy, therefore democracy can produce a political leader with good performance. Elections are also a mean for the public to determine which policies are appropriate to be applied, based on the campaign. This study tried to capture the influence of socio-economic factors at the village level to the winning of Jokowi in 2014 election. The study found that poverty, economic access and infrastructure as well as the middle class plays a major role in the Jokowi’s victory. This study also found that media is influential to the vote decision., Voter evaluation of the political leader’s performance is the foundation for democracy, therefore democracy can produce a political leader with good performance. Elections are also a mean for the public to determine which policies are appropriate to be applied, based on the campaign. This study tried to capture the influence of socio-economic factors at the village level to the winning of Jokowi in 2014 election. The study found that poverty, economic access and infrastructure as well as the middle class plays a major role in the Jokowi’s victory. This study also found that media is influential to the vote decision.]"

"Krisis ekonomi global yang dialami negara-negara maju telah menimbulkan dampak negatif bagi negara-negara di kawasan Asia Tenggara (ASEAN) yang notabennya mayoritas merupakan negara berkembang, dimana negara-negara ASEAN ini mengekspor sebagian besar komoditasnya ke negara maju. Diversifikasi ekspor dianggap menjadi strategi yang tepat untuk meningkatkan kinerja ekspor negara-negara ASEAN tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh strategi diversifikasi pasar dan produk ekspor dalam meningkatkan kinerja ekspor negara-negara ASEAN tersebut selama perode 1991-2012 dengan menggunakan metode estimasi fixed effect model (FEM). Hasil penelitiannya menunjukkan bahwa diversifikasi pasar dan produk ekspor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dalam meningkatkan kinerja ekspor. Variabel kontrol yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini seperti GDP, infrastruktur, populasi, dan dummy crisis juga ditemukan berpengaruh terhadap kinerja ekspor.

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The global economic crisis has resulted in negative effect in ASEAN countries due to the fact that some of their major export destinations are the ones who heavily affected by the crisis. Export diversification is often perceived as the proper strategy for the ASEAN countries to counter this situation and stabilize the export income. This research aims to identify the effect of product and market export diversification in improving the export performance of the ASEAN countries during the period 1991-2012. Using the fixed effect model (FEM) estimation, the results showed that both market and product diversification have positive and significant effect in improving ASEAN members' export performance. Other findings are that all supporting variables namely GDP, infrastructure, population and crisis dummy are also having positive and significant effect."