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"AbstractThis study aims to determine the relationship between local government spending, agricultural productivity, and poverty in Indonesia for the period of 2005-2008. Using econometric models of the panel and panelsimultaneous, this study find the evidence that local government spending on infrastructure and education significantly affect agricultural productivity and poverty. The study also found that the value of multiplier effect of local government spending on poverty, roads is the largest, followed by education (the literacy rate) and irrigation."

"Pemerintah daerah di Indonesia memiliki ketergantungan yang tinggi pada dana transfer dari pemerintah pusat. Untuk memahami isu ini, banyak penelitian yang telah dilakukan untuk memahami dampak dana transfer terhadap perilaku belanja pemerintah daerah. Namun, penelitian yang sudah ada hanya fokus pada dampak dari realisasi dana transfer. Studi ini menguji secara empiris pengaruh ekspektasi transfer terhadap perilaku belanja pemerintah daerah. Analisis empiris ini menggunakan seperangkat variabel ekonomi dan politik sebagai proxy ekspektasi transfer di 426 pemerintah daerah di Indonesia sepanjang 2009-2018. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa alokasi dana transfer, meskipun telah diatur secara formal oleh Peraturan Pemerintah, dipengaruhi oleh faktor ekonomi dan politik di luar formula. Penelitian ini juga mengonfirmasi bahwa ekspektasi transfer merupakan faktor yang relevan dalam memengaruhi belanja pemerintah daerah. Peningkatan ekspektasi transfer berasosiasi dengan meningkatnya belanja pemerintah daerah pada seluruh jenis dan fungsi. Pemerintah daerah yang berekspektasi mengalami kenaikan transfer cenderung memiliki tingkat belanja yang lebih tinggi.

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Fiscal decentralization in Indonesia is characterized by high dependency of local governments on transfer funds from the central government as a source of revenue. In order to understand the behavior of local governments in spending transfer funds, a substantial amount of work has been done to estimate the impact of transfer funds on local government spending. However, existing research has so far only focused on the impact of the realization transfer funds. This study examines empirically the role of transfer expectation in affecting local government spending behavior. The empirical analysis employs a set of political and economic variables to proxy transfer expectations in 426 local governments in Indonesia across 2009-2018. This research found that transfer allocation, even when enshrined in a law, appear to be influenced by economic dan political factors beyond the formula. The analysis also confirms that transfer expectations are relevant determinant of local government spending. Our findings suggest that an increase in expected transfers is associated with increase in local government spending across type and functions. Local governments expecting a higher level of transfer tend to react with a higher level of expenditure."

"The government has a contribution to ensuring the stability of economic growth. The existence of regional autonomy and fiscal decentralization gives the authority to develop their regions independently by utilizing their potential. In 2020, Maluku Utara's economic growth grew by 4.92 percent, the value tends to be stable, but the contribution to the national economy is very slight. From a fiscal perspective, a component that determines the economic direction is government spending. However, Maluku Utara's government spending tends to be weak and fluctuating. The condition indicates that the relationship between government spending and economic growth is inconsistent. Several objectives were set to provide an overview of the economic structure, analyze the impact of government spending on the output and value-added of the economic sector, and identify government spending by the function that affects economic growth in Maluku Utara. This study uses the I-O table impact analysis and panel data regression analysis. Based on the impact analysis of the I-O table, capital spending has the most output impact and added value in the construction sector. Meanwhile, government consumption and total government spending impact the Government Administration sectors most. Then, from the panel data regression analysis results, three variables have a significant influence, namely spending by function on economics, education, and health. However, there is an anomaly in the government spending on the economy with a negative effect of 0.003190. That indicates the items allocated to government spending by function on economics in Maluku Utara are ineffective."

"Pertumbuhan ekonomi sangat penting baik bagi negara berkembang maupun bagi negara maju. Ketika pertumbuhan ekonomi pada suatu negara mengalami peningkatan, maka kesejahteraan masyarakat juga akan semakin meningkat sehingga ketimpangan dan kemiskinan akan semakin berkurang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diiringi oleh meningkatnya ketimpangan dan kemiskinan berarti bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut hanya dinikmati oleh sebagian kelompok masyarakat karena hanya mementingkatn pertumbuhan ekonomi berdasarkan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Oleh karena itu, hal ini memerlukan arah kebijakan baru dari pemerintah yang dapat mengurangi tingkat ketimpangan dan kemiskinan seiring dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hal ini disebut sebagai pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis hubungan belanja daerah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif di Indonesia dengan data sekunder dari 34 Provinsi di Indonesia dari tahun 2011-2021. Jika dapat dibuktikan bahwa variabel belanja daerah berupa rasio belanja modal dan rasio belanja bantuan sosial memiliki hubungan positif dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa dengan percepatan inklusivitas pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat menurunkan tingkat ketimpangan dan kemiskinan di Indonesia. Untuk mengetahui hubungan belanja daerah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif, digunakan analisis data panel statis yaitu model fixed effect karena dapat mengurangi bias dibandingkan dengan model data panel yang lain, terutama bias yang disebabkan oleh variabel yang sifatnya unobservable time invariant. Hasil analisis dari penelitian ini menjelaskan bahwa belanja daerah berupa belanja modal dan belanja bantuan sosial memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif di Indonesia.­ Belanja modal memiliki hubungan negatif dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif, sementara belanja bantuan sosial memiliki hubungan positif dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif.

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Economic growth is very important for both developing and developed countries. When economic growth in a country increases, social welfare will also increase so that inequality and poverty will decrease. Economic growth accompanied by increasing inequality and poverty means that this economic growth is only enjoyed by some groups of people because it only increases economic growth based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Therefore, this requires a new policy direction from the government that can reduce the level of inequality and poverty along with increasing economic growth. This is referred to as inclusive economic growth. The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between regional spending and inclusive economic growth in Indonesia with secondary data from 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2011-2021. If it can be proven that regional expenditure variables in the form of capital expenditure ratio and social assistance expenditure ratio have a positive relationship with inclusive economic growth, it can be concluded that accelerating economic growth inclusiveness can reduce inequality and poverty levels in Indonesia. To find out the relationship between regional spending and inclusive economic growth, static panel data analysis is used, namely the fixed effect model because it can reduce bias compared to other panel data models, especially bias caused by variables that are unobservable time invariant. The results of the analysis of this study explain that regional expenditures in the form of capital expenditures and social assistance expenditures have a significant influence on inclusive economic growth in Indonesia. Capital spending has a negative relationship with inclusive economic growth, while social assistance spending has a positive relationship with inclusive economic growth."

"Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji apakah pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dikategorikan sebagai pro-poor growth (berpihak kepada orang miskin). Thesis ini akan dianalisis melalui bagaimana mekanisme pertumbuhan ekonomi mempengaruhi kemiskinan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel yang disusun dengan data pada tingkat provinsi untuk periode 2004 – 2010. Selanjutnya, data panel tersebut dipergunakan untuk mengestimasi model ekonometrik yang memungkinkan kita mengetahui dampak dari pertumbuhan ekonomi, ketimpangan, pengeluaran pemerintah, dan kemampuan fiskal pada tingkat kemiskinan. Adapun variabel kontrol terdiri dari koefisien Gini, Per Kapita Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB per kapita), pengeluaran pemerintah, dan sumber pendapatan sendiri.Hasil penelitian ini memiliki implikasi pada kebijakan pemerintah. Pertama, hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi yang baik ternyata dapat menanggulangi kemiskinan. Dengan demikian, Pemerintah harus memformulasikan kebijakan yang dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berpihakak pada masyarakat miskin. Selain itu, bukti empiris menunjukkan bahwa tingkat kemiskinan lebih responsif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dari pada distribusi pendapatan (gini ratio). Kedua, pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sangat bervariasi. Belanja pemerintah untuk pendidikan dan kesehatan memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap pengentasan kemiskinan melalui ketidaksetaraan pendapatan berkurang, sedangkan belanja publik pada perlindungan sosial tidak signifikan berkontribusi dalam mengurangi angka kemiskinan. Selanjutnya, kemampuan fiskal di masing-masing provinsi sangat diperlukan untuk meningkatkan pengentasan kemiskinan di wilayhanya.Dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi diperlukan untuk meningkatkan efektivitas penanggulangan kemiskinan. Selain itu, untuk mempercepat pengurangan kemiskinan di Indonesia, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan juga harus didukung melalui investasi sumber daya manusia, serta merancang dan menerapkan program pengurangan kemiskinan yang berpihak pada masyarakat miskin. Untuk kasus Indonesia, pertumbuhan ekonomi selama periode 2004-2010 dapat disimpulkan sebagai pro-poor growth.

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The main purpose of this study is to examine whether economic growth in Indonesia is categorised as pro-poor growth. It will be analysed through how economic growth affects poverty. To address this research, we will conduct the study using panel data. It consists of province-level data from 2004 - 2010 to estimate an econometric model that allows us to know the impact of economic growth, inequality, government spending, and fiscal capability on poverty rate. Therefore, the set of control variables consists of the Gini coefficient, per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), government spending, and own income resources.

The estimated results of this study have important policy implications. First, the finding shows that economic growth is good to enhance poverty reduction; government therefore should consider to rising up economic growth benefiting for the poor. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that the poverty headcount ratio in Indonesia is more responsive on economic growth than on income distribution. Second, the effect of government expenditures varies for different type of spending. Government spending on education and health has significant impact on poverty alleviation through reduced income inequality; while public expenditure on social protection is insignificantly contribute to decrease poverty rate. Finally, the fiscal capability in each province is required to enhance poverty eradication.

Further, economic growth is needed to enhance the effectiveness of poverty reduction. Moreover, sustained growth should be accompanied by encouraging in human capital investment to accelerate poverty reduction. In addition, designing and implementing pro poor poverty reduction program should be done to accelerate poverty alleviation. Finally, this result suggests that economic growth during period 2004-2010 in Indonesia can be concluded as pro-poor growth"

"Thesis ini memeriksa pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah pada sektor pendidikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui rasio penerimaan sekolah secara tidak langsung, khususnya di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan set panel data dari 26 provinsi sejak tahun 2000 sampai dengan 2010 dan menerapkan pendekatan fixed effect, kami menemukan bahwa pengeluaran pemerintah pada sektor pendidikan berpegaruh positif signifikan terhadap penerimaan sekolah satu tahun yang lalu; data juga menunjukan bahwa penerimaan sekolah berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dengan mengaplikasikan chain rule, pengeluaran pemerintah pada sektor pendidikan secara tidak langsung berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Secara menyeluruh, temuan ini menyarankan bahwa meningkatkan pengeluaran pemerintah pada sektor pendidikan dapat meningkatkan rasio penerimaan sekolah dan lebih lanjut lagi menambah pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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This paper examines the effect of government spending on education on growth as an indirect process through enrollment rate, specifically in Indonesia. Usinga panel data set of 26 provinces from 2000 to 2010 and applying fixed effect approach of panel regression, we find that government spending on education has a positive relationship with enrollment with one-year lag; also, the data show that enrollment affect growth significantly. By enacting the chain rule, government spending on education has a positive effect in economic growth indirectly. Together, these findings suggest that raise government spending on education can increase enrollment rate and enhance economic growth."

"Dengan tingkat belanja yang sama di bidang pendidikan atau kesehatan, beberapa daerah memiliki pencapaian IPM yang baik sementara daerah lainnya mengalami ketertinggalan. Hal tersebut menunjukkan terdapat faktor lain yang mempengaruhi pencapaian IPM. Human Development Report 2016 secara khusus menekankan bahwa Indonesia harus memberikan perhatian serius terhadap mekanisme akuntabilitas lokal. Hal ini menimbulkan pertanyaan bagaimanakah peran akuntabilitas pemerintah daerah terhadap pembangunan manusia di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan Hausman Taylor estimator, penelitian ini menguji peran akuntabilitas dan pengeluaran publik menggunakan data panel tingkat kabupaten/kota di Indonesia selama periode 2012-2016. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa belanja publik secara tersendiri tidak berkorelasi signifikan terhadap IPM. Namun, ketika tata kelola dilibatkan, belanja kesehatan publik efektif dalam meningkatkan IPM di daerah yang akuntabilitasnya baik, dan sebaliknya tidak efektif di daerah dengan akuntabilitas yang rendah.

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With the same level of spending in the field of education or health, some regions have good HDI achievements while some other regions are lagging behind. This shows that there are other factors that contribute to the achievement of the HDI. The Human Development Report 2016 specifically emphasizes that Indonesia must improve service delivery and give serious attention to local accountability mechanisms. This raises the question of how the role of local government accountability for human development in Indonesia. Using Hausman Taylor estimator, we estimate the effect of public spending and accountability from the district panel data in Indonesia over the period 2012-2016. The results in this paper suggest that public expenditure alone is not sufficient in achieving human development outcome. However, when governance is involved, public expenditure in the health sector is effective in increasing HDI in districts with high local government accountability, and vice versa is not effective in districts with low accountability."

"Berbeda dengan studi sebelumnya yang berfokus pada pengaruh pemilihan umum terhadap belanja anggaran, studi ini berfokus pada perbedaan perilaku  belanja anggaran antara daerah yang memiliki petahana yang memutuskan untuk maju kembali pada pilkada 2015 dengan daerah di mana petahana sudah menjalani dua periode. Asumsi yang digunakan pada studi ini adalah para petahana yang maju kembali seringkali mencoba memaksimalkan pengaruh mereka agar terpilih kembali, sementara petahana yang sudah tidak dapat mencalonkan diri kembali akan bertindak lebih konservatif. Studi ini menggunakan metode OLS untuk menganalisa perilaku oportunistik daerah terkait penggunaan anggaran daerah yang kepala daerahnya dapat maju kembali dan yang tidak dapat maju kembali pada pemilihan kepala daerah secara serentak tahun 2015 di 237 kabupaten/kota. Untuk itu, studi ini menganalisa kebijakan fiskal kepala daerah melalui pos-pos pengeluaran tertentu yang diduga dapat menarik simpati pemilih seperti total belanja daerah, belanja investasi, serta anggaran diskresi baik secara total maupun detil yang terdiri dari belanja hibah, belanja bantuan sosial, dan belanja bantuan keuangan. Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahwa secara umum tidak terdapat perbedaan perilaku belanja antara daerah yang memiliki petahana yang maju kembali dalam pemilukada dan yang sudah dua periode kecuali pada komponen belanja hibah. Di daerah di mana petahana dapat dipilih kembali dan memutuskan untuk ikut pemilukada kembali, belanja hibah cenderung lebih tinggi pada tahun dilaksanakannya pilkada. Selain itu, pada kabupaten/kota tersebut, semakin tinggi pengeluaran hibah pada tahun sebelum pilkada disertai oleh penurunan anggaran hibah pada tahun pilkada.

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Unlike other studies that focus on election time effect on budget spending, this study focuses on the difference in spending policy behavior between regions that have eligible incumbent and decide to re-run in the 2015 election and regions that have the last period incumbent. Hypothetically, incumbents who seek to gain electoral support have opportunity and power to enhance their re-election prospect by increasing their targeted expenditures in the times leading to the election time, while the last term period incumbents will act oppositely.

OLS cross-sectional data used to analyze politicians’ behavior on fiscal spending policy. We try to find whether re-running eligibility leads them to behave differently compared to lame ducks in 237 municipalities. The level of targeted expenditures to attract voters we use in this study are budget total spending, investment spending, and discretionary funds, both as aggregate, and as disaggregated funds which consisting  grants aid, social assistance expenditures, and financial aid.

In general, the results obtained shows that there is no difference behavior between regions that have re-running incumbent and regions that have last period incumbent except in grant subcomponent. Compared to regions that had lame ducks, grant expenditure tends to be higher on election year in regions that have re-running incumbent. Also, the higher grant expenditure in a year before election, the lower grant expenditure during election year in those regions."

"ABSTRACTThis study examines the existence of local budget utilization behaviour by incumbents who have politically interested policies, since they have motive to attract prospective voters. this study focuses on 254 provincial and districts/cities in Indonesia which held simultaneous regional head election in 2015. it analyses targeted expenditures that have highly visible to please voters, and allegedly affect vote-share results, such as budget deficits, total spending, investment spending, discretionary funds include its sub components: grants, social aids, and financial aids. according to the results obtained, there is no indication of politically driven fiscal policy by incumbent candidates in almost all spending categories. However, there is a positive and significant relationship between the regions that have incumbents and grant expenditure subcategory behaviour. This finding indicates that this category expenditure is still popular among incumbents to stimulate citizens and gain sufficient vote-share later on."